Peer-reviewed articles


Lopez VK, Cramer EY, Pagano R, Drake JM, O’Dea EB, Adee M, Ayer T, Chhatwal J, Dalgic OO, Ladd MA, Linas BP, Mueller PP, Xiao J, Bracher J, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, …, Johansson M. Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020–2021. PLOS Computational Biology. 2024; 20(5): e1011200. PDF

Jung S-m, Loo SL, Howerton E, Contamin L, Smith CP, Carcelén EC, Yan K, Bents SJ, Levander J, Espino J, Lemaitre JC, Sato K, McKee CD, Hill AL, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Vespignani A, Rosenstrom ET, …, Lessler J. Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. PLOS Medicine. 2024; 21(4): e1004387. PDF

Lemaitre JC, Loo SL, Kaminsky J, Lee EC, McKee C, Smith C, Jung S-m, Sato K, Carcelen E, Hill A, Lessler J, Truelove S. flepiMoP: the evolution of a flexible infectious disease modeling pipeline during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemics. 2024; 47: 100753. PDF


Howerton E, Contamin L, Mullany LC, Qin M, Reich NG, Bents S, Borchering RK, Jung S-m, Loo SL, Smith CP, Levander J, Kerr J, Espino J, Van Panhuis WG, Hochheiser H, Galanti M, Yamana T, Pei S, Shaman J, …, Viboud, C, Lessler J. Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty. Nature Communications. 2023; 14: 7260. PDF


Borchering RK, Mullany LC, Howerton E, Chinazzi M, Smith CP, Qin M, Reich NG, Contamin L, Levander J, Kerr J, Espino J, Hochheiser H, Lovett K, Kinsey M, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Shin L, Lemaitre JC, Hulse JD, …, Truelove SA, Runge MC, Viboud C, Lessler J. Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study. The Lancet Regional Health–Americas. 2022; 17: 100398. PDF

Truelove S, Smith CP, Qin M, Mullany LC, Borchering RK, Lessler J, Shea K, Howerton E, Contamin L, Levander J, Kerr J, Hochheiser H, Kinsey M, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Shin L, Rainwater-Lovett K, Lemaitre JC, Dent J, …, Runge MC, Viboud C. Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July–December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination. eLife. 2022; 11: e73584. PDF

Perez-Saez J, Lee EC, Wada NI, Alqunaibet AM, Almudarra SS, Alsukait RF, Dong D, Zhang Y, El Saharty S, Herbst CH, Lessler J. Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia. PLOS Global Public Health. 2022; 2(5): e0000237. PDF

Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, House KH, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Shah A, Stark A, Wang Y, …, Reich NG. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2022; 119(15): e2113561119. PDF


Borchering RK, Viboud C, Howerton E, Smith CP, Truelove S, Runge MC, Reich NG, Contamin L, Levander J, Salerno J, Van Panhuis W, Kinsey M, Tallaksen K, Obrecht RF, Asher L, Costello C, Kelbaugh M, Wilson S, Shin L, …, Shea K, Lessler J. Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2021; 70(19): 719–724. PDF

Lemaitre JC, Grantz KH, Kaminsky J, Meredith HR, Truelove SA, Lauer SA, Keegan LT, Shah S, Wills J, Kaminsky K, Perez-Saez J, Lessler J, Lee EC. A scenario modeling pipeline for COVID-19 emergency planning. Scientific Reports. 2021; 11(1): 7534. PDF



Mathis SM, Webber AE, Basu A, Drake JM, White LA, Murray EL, Sun M, Leon TM, Hu AJ, Shemetov D, Brooks LC, Tibshirani RJ, Green A, McDonald DJ, Rosenfeld R, Kandula S, Yamana TK, Pei S, Yaari R, …, Borchering RK. Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. medRxiv. 2023. PDF